Douchebag Alert - IV

A few weels ago, we opined, in part (emphasis added):

Contrary to Shank's propaganda, some of us 'blogboys' who don't live in mom's basement have jobs & mortgages and shit, so we don't have time to savor the finer things in life, like the barrel of fish that his feed provides.

And how right we were:

This blogger took it seriously to start out with; after all, I'm a numbers guy, although not necessarily in probability. That said, I'm guessing by 'odds', Shank means X to 1, with a high X number indicating the increased improbability of an event occurring. With seventeen flips, an average of 8.5 flips one way or the other would mean 1:1 probability, or break-even. If you want to figure 13 successful flips, you'd need to come out ahead on 4.5 of those 'average' flips, and from there you just need to apply exponential math, or 2^4.5 = 22.63 to 1 odds of hitting Shank's mark.

If I'm wrong on this, I'd appreciate some feedback on the correct approach.

And you know what? All that work, right or wrong, was wasted, thanks to twitter responder Derek Silva:

Silly Dan... Smart people don't follow you.

Aaaand... thread over!

UPDATE, 12:45 AM Yeah, I know he's trolling with that overwrought 'coin toss and defer' schtick, but I thought it was necessary to respond in this manner to insure his exclusion from any MENSA discussions or memberships, in that rare, rare chance they occur.